Winter heating bills 2026-27: EIA expects heating oil costs to jump while gas and propane homes pay less

How much you pay to heat your home this winter depends heavily on the fuel you use. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Winter Fuels Outlook for 2026-27, published Oct. 6 with the agency's October Short-Term Energy Outlook, expects households that heat mainly with natural gas or propane, about half of U.S. homes, to spend less than last winter. Homes that heat with electricity or heating oil are expected to spend more.

The forecast by fuel

The EIA's figures are average household spending on the main heating fuel from November through March, compared with last winter. They cover all uses of that fuel in the home, not only heating, and are not adjusted for inflation.

Heating oil homes, about 3% of U.S. households and mostly in the Northeast, face the largest increase. The EIA forecasts an average heating oil price of $5.26 a gallon this winter, up 34%, as reduced global refining has pushed up distillate fuel prices and left U.S. stocks low heading into winter. Heating oil use is forecast to fall 9%, helped by a warmer forecast for the Northeast, which partly offsets the higher price.

Natural gas is the most common heating fuel, the main source in 46% of U.S. homes in 2024, according to Census Bureau survey data cited by the EIA. Lower prices are expected to cut spending in the Northeast, Midwest and South. The West is the exception: a colder winter there is forecast to raise natural gas spending.

Electricity bills are forecast to rise 4% on average, from a 3% increase in residential electricity prices and slightly higher use. The largest increase, 9%, is expected in the West because of colder weather.

Propane spending is forecast to fall 3% nationally and 15% in the Northeast, where the EIA expects lower prices and lower consumption.

Weather is the wild card

The EIA's base forecast assumes national average temperatures similar to last winter, with a warmer Northeast and a much colder West. It notes that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has identified a strong El Niño pattern this winter, which could lead to large swings from the forecast.

Because weather is the biggest source of uncertainty, the EIA also models side cases in which every region is 10% colder or 10% warmer than its base forecast. Cold weather raises both how much fuel a home burns and, often, what that fuel costs. The EIA cautions that its averages are a broad guide and that switching fuels would not necessarily lower any one household's costs.

Ways to cut your heating bill

The Department of Energy's winter energy tips include several low-cost steps:

• Turn the thermostat down. Setting it 7 to 10 degrees lower for 8 hours a day while you are away or asleep can shave as much as 10% a year off heating bills, the DOE says.
• Seal leaks. Weatherstripping, caulking and added insulation are low-cost ways to reduce drafts.
• Use your windows. The DOE says about 30% of a home's heating energy is lost through windows. Plastic window coverings and curtains help; open shades on sunny days to let warmth in and close them at night.
• Maintain your system. ENERGY STAR's maintenance checklist advises inspecting, cleaning or changing furnace and heat pump filters monthly and scheduling a heating check-up in the fall.
• Do not heat with appliances. The DOE warns that ovens and other appliances are not meant for space heating and can be unsafe if used that way.

If you buy heating oil or propane, ask your supplier about payment plans or prepaying, and compare prices. For gas and electric bills, ask your utility whether it offers budget billing or payment arrangements.

Help paying for heat

The Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or LIHEAP, is federally funded and run by states, tribes and territories. It helps with home energy bills, energy crises, weatherization and minor energy-related home repairs. To apply, visit energyhelp.us or call the National Energy Assistance Referral line at 1-866-674-6327.

Application periods and benefits vary by state. As of Oct. 12, the Administration for Children and Families' funding releases page listed releases for fiscal 2026 but none yet for fiscal 2027, which began Oct. 1, so contact your local office about when it is taking applications. HHS warns that LIHEAP does not give direct grants to individuals or charge a fee for a benefit. If someone offers you a LIHEAP grant or asks for a fee, call the HHS fraud hotline at 1-800-447-8477.

The Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program pays for efficiency upgrades for income-eligible homeowners and renters. Households at or below 200% of the federal poverty guidelines, or that receive Supplemental Security Income, are generally eligible, and states may use LIHEAP's limit of 60% of state median income instead. The DOE says weatherized households save $372 or more a year on average. Apply through your state weatherization agency.

Forecasts change as prices and weather shift, and the EIA updates its outlook monthly through the winter. Your own costs will depend on your home, your equipment and local rates, so check with your utility or fuel supplier for figures that apply to you.